News-based uncertainty measures and returns on prices of precious metals: evidence from regime switching and time-varying causality approach

PurposeThe study aims to examine the relationship among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical-risks (GPR), the interaction (EPGR) of EPU and GPR and the returns of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium using monthly data from January (1997) to May (2021).Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs the Markov-switching and the novel Shi et al. (2020) bootstrap time-varying Granger-causality approach.FindingsThough the Markov-switching shows variation in the responses of precious metals to EPU, GPR and EPGR across low and high states, the paper observes the safe-haven potential of the precious metals in the high regime while the hedging potency is also evident in the results. To further substantiate the safe-haven and hedging properties, the time-varying Granger-causality shows the causal effect of EPU on all the selected precious metal returns coinciding with global events. While the authors show that GPR Granger causes platinum, palladium and rhodium consistently under the rolling/recursive-evolving tests, the authors cannot find the causal effect of GPR on gold and silver returns across the algorithms. The paper also observes persistence in the causal effect of EPGR on palladium and platinum across all the algorithms, while gold and rhodium only show consistency in the responses under the rolling- and recursive-evolving algorithms given the conditions of homoscedasticity and heteroscedasticity.Practical implicationsThe authors' results are essential to investors and policymakers since both typically leverage the hedging and safe-haven characteristics of precious metals to obviate downside risks during highly uncertain periods.Originality/valueThe authors' techniques allow examining the hedging and safe-haven properties of precious metals across regimes and date-stamp critical periods of causation inherent in the relationship.

The Interplay of Skills, Digital Financial Literacy, Capability, and Autonomy in Financial Decision Making and Well-Being

Covid-19 and the unprecedented surge in financial technology contributed to unexpected financial challenges, affecting the relevance of financial decision making and perceived financial well-being. This paper examines the mediating effects of digital financial literacy, financial autonomy, financial capability, and impulsivity on financial decision making and perceived financial well-being. The data come from 512 respondents in Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India, using a snowball-sampling technique and partial least squares structural equation modeling to test 13 structural hypotheses with SmartPLS3.3. Partial least squares (PLS) prediction is employed to estimate the out-of-sample predictive power of the proposed model. Our findings reveal that skills directly affect financial decision making and perceived financial well-being, and digital financial literacy emerges as a direct and mediating predictor of financial decision making. The dominance of financial capability and financial autonomy as mediators in financial decision making and financial well-being become more evident, and impulsivity fails to have mediating effects on financial decision making. The results have academic, regulatory, and managerial implications, all of which calls for more concerted efforts at recognizing the unique interaction among skills—financial decision making—perceived financial well-being, the cumulative effect of which enhances the critical ability to deal with environmental challenges, manage socioeconomic pressures in a sustainable manner, and translate the benefits into prudent gender-specific policy decisions and practices.

Uncertainty measures and inflation dynamics in selected global players: a wavelet approach.

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risks (GPR), the interaction of EPU and GPR (EPGR), and inflation in the USA, Canada, the UK, Japan, and China. We employ the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to track the evolution of model variables and the wavelet coherence (WC) to examine the co-movement and lead-lag status of the series across different frequencies and time. To strengthen the WC, we apply the multiple wavelet coherence (MWC) to determine how good the linear combination of independent variables co-moves with inflation across various time-frequency domains. The CWT reveals heterogeneous characteristics in the evolution of each variable across frequencies. Inflation across samples shows strong variance in the short-term and medium-term while the volatility fizzles out in the long-term. For the explanatory variables, a similar pattern holds for EPU except for Japan and China, where coherence is evident in the short-term. The USA's and Canada's GPR reveal strong coherence in the short- and medium-term. Also, the UK and China reflect strong coherence in the short-term but weak significance in the medium-term, while Japan's GPR reflects only strong coherence in the short-term. The EPGR shows strong variation in the short-and-medium-term in the samples except in China. The WC's phase-difference reflects bidirectional causalities and switches in signs among series across different scales and periods in the samples, while the MWC reveals the combined intensity, strength, and significance of both EPU and GPR in predicting inflation across frequency bands among the countries. Findings also show significant co-movement among series at date-stamped periods, corroborating critical global events such as the Asian financial crisis, Global financial crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic. The paper has policy implications.

Forecasting the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on China Exports using Different Time Series Models

Purpose: The primary objective of this paper is to identify the best forecasting model for China exports, especially during the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology: We used the data of China exports to the United States and different economic regions from January 2014 to January 2021 to compare models using various criteria and selected the best exports forecast model. The hybrid model is employed to conduct the analysis. The combination of the hybrid model consists of six different models: ARIMA, ETS, Theta, NNAR, seasonal and trend decomposition, and TBATS model. Findings: Our results showed that the hybrid and ANN outperformed the remaining models in forecasting China exports to the world, considering the shock created by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. This paper underscores the importance of using the specified models in forecasting exports during this period. The results also demonstrate that the magnitude of China exports to all groups decreased and will continue to decline for the next few months. Practical Implication: Forecasting of the export data is presented for the subsequent nine months, thereby providing insights to all policymakers, governments, and investors to be proactive in designing their strategies to avoid any delay/disruption in the imports from China, which could enhance the smooth flow of raw material and sustain industrial production.

COVID-19 pandemic and behaviour of Indian consumers: a sustainable transition

In this paper, we offer some preliminary examinations of how COVID-19 pandemic affects Indian consumers' behaviour. In this paper, data is collected from various Indian consumers from different cities. 300 consumers are randomly selected to fill the questionnaire. (76 responses are from a semi-urban city in Uttar Pradesh, Aligarh, 70 were from Delhi/NCR, 100 were from Hyderabad and 54 were from Bangalore). We argue that COVID-19 pandemic offers great opportunities for businesses. We also discuss some potential directions of how consumer sustainable decision making has been shifted due to this pandemic. The results show that Indian consumers' interests have been shifted towards online retailing, online payments, sustainable food habits, and a sustainable lifestyle. This study will help the businesses as well the academicians in determining what consumers are preferring during this COVID-19 pandemic. This is the first study conducted in India that addressed the consumers' behaviours at the best knowledge of the authors.

Teachers’ intention to continue the use of online teaching tools post Covid-19

Covid-19 has forced educators to switch to online teaching as the only viable option, whether through video lecturing or using other online teaching tools. Therefore, the study investigates university teachers’ perceptions towards their continuing intention of using the online platforms after Covid19 situations. To answer such questions, the present study conducted a survey of 242 faculties engaged in higher education teaching at assistant. We have conducted the present study using a sample of 242 faculties. Based on the framework of technology adoption model (TAM), this study investigates the research questions in the context of India. The study has adopted a mixed-method research design comprising both qualitative and quantitative techniques. The data were analyzed using partial least square structure equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The results of hypotheses testing indicate that all the hypotheses based on were accepted in the complete sample and for the men’s sample were accepted at p < 0.05 level. However, for the sample of women respondents, this was not the case. The study resulted that ease of use positively influences teachers’ attitude towards online teaching. This study provides theoretical contributions by applying the TAM to measure post-Covid-19 online teaching intention of teachers working at universities and college levels in India. It could help policyholders in the education sector to design appropriate strategies for online learning and teaching process. Though Covid-19 has adversely hit most of the industries, some industries might have benefited from this as well. Particularly, industries are thriving in the online market place.

Oil price and economic performance: Additional evidence from advanced economies

This study reexamines the causal relationship between oil price and economic performance (proxy by GDP returns) in seven selected advanced economies: Australia, Canada, China, the US, the UK, Japan, and Germany. We employ the homoscedastic and heteroscedastic-consistent versions of the Shi et al. (2020) bootstrap time-varying Granger causality to detect and date stamp causal changes in the relationship between oil price and GDP returns of the sample countries. Findings indicate bidirectional causality between oil price and economic performance for at least one month across all sample countries within notable global events such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study also detects and date stamps long periods of causality running from the economic performances of Canada, China, the US, Japan, and Germany to oil prices using GDP returns as a predictor. The results indicate the weight and significance of the predictive power of the GDP growth of these economies in shaping the cyclical fluctuation of oil prices extending through pre and post COVID-19 epidemic. The findings inform some policy implications.

Pro-poor and inclusive growth in West Africa

PurposeThis paper focuses on three key metrics of poverty, income distribution and employment to ascertain the pro-poor and inclusive-growth position of the western African region. The roles of governance structures and their interactive effects are also accommodated to capture the peculiarity of the region.Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs fixed and dynamic models.FindingsEvidence suggests that growth is pro-poor, although virtually all governance indicators are sterile in stimulating poverty reduction. The authors observe that health and education spending coupled with trade-openness stimulate pro-poor growth potentials, whereas conflicts culminate the pervasiveness of poverty in the region. By empirically answering the question of how inclusive is economic growth through the lens of income-distribution and employment, the authors show that growth has been exclusive as per-capita-GDP growth rather dampens income shared by the poorest 20%. Also, it is observed that growth has not been inclusive as the jobless-growth argument remains valid while high inequality further exacerbates unemployment in the region. It is further shown that governance has been generally weak in propelling inclusive growth except where the institutional-component of governance stimulates inclusive growth through improvement in equality and labor employability.Originality/valueThe study jointly examines the metrics of poverty, income distribution and employment to ascertain growth pro-poorness and inclusivity which are key for the achievement of African-union (AU) agenda 2063. The study captures cross-sectional dependence among selected countries which previous studies ignored.

COVID-19 pandemic and transmission factors: An empirical investigation of different countries.

The present work evaluates the impact of age, population density, total population, rural population, annual average temperature, basic sanitation facilities, and diabetes prevalence on the transmission of COVID-19. This research is an effort to identify the major predictors that have a significant impact on the number of COVID-19 cases per million population for 83 countries. The findings highlight that a population with a greater share of old people (aged above 65) shows a higher number of COVID-19 positive cases and a population with a lower median age has fewer cases. This can be explained in terms of higher co-morbidities and the lower general immunity in the older age group. The analysis restates the widely seen results that a higher median age and greater prevalence of co-morbidities leads to higher cases per million and lesser population density and interpersonal contact helps in containing the spread of the virus. The study finds foundation in the assertion that a higher temperature might lower the number of cases, or that temperature in general can affect the infectivity. The study suggests that better access to sanitation is a certain measure to contain the spread of the virus. The outcome of this study will be helpful in ascertaining the impact of these indicators in this pandemic, and help in policy formation and decision-making strategies to fight against it.